Agile Estimation (Story Points, Planning Poker) in SDLC
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Jan 22, 2024

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21 Min Read

1. What is Agile Estimation?

Agile estimation is a process used to determine the size, difficulty and effort required to complete a project or task in an agile development environment. It involves breaking down the project scope into smaller and more manageable pieces and estimating their relative sizes or effort needed to complete them. This helps agile teams to plan and prioritize their work, manage expectations, and stay on track with project timelines.

2. Why is Agile Estimation important?

There are several reasons why agile estimation is important:

– Improved planning: By breaking down the project into smaller chunks and estimating their size, agile teams can better plan and prioritize their work. This allows for a more realistic and achievable roadmap for completing the project.
– Efficient use of resources: Agile estimation helps teams identify the most important tasks or features that need to be completed first. This ensures that limited time and resources are directed towards high-value items.
– Managing expectations: With accurate estimations, stakeholders can have a clear understanding of when certain features or tasks will be completed. This helps to manage their expectations and avoid disappointment or delays.
– Early identification of roadblocks: During the estimation process, potential challenges or obstacles may be identified. This allows for early mitigation strategies to be put in place before they become major roadblocks.
– Increased team collaboration: The process of estimation requires input from multiple team members, promoting communication and collaboration within the team.
– Continuous improvement: Agile estimation is an iterative process that allows for constant re-evaluation and adjustment as new information becomes available. This promotes continuous improvement in both estimations and project outcomes.

2. How does Agile Estimation differ from traditional estimation methods?


Agile Estimation differs from traditional estimation methods in several ways:

1. Timeframe: Traditional estimation methods typically rely on estimating the total time and effort required to complete a project before any work begins. This is usually done during the planning stage, with little or no flexibility for adjustments during the project’s course. In contrast, Agile Estimation focuses on short-term planning and continuously re-evaluating estimates throughout the project’s duration.

2. Granularity: Traditional estimation methods often require precise and detailed estimates for each task or phase of a project. This can be time-consuming and may not accurately reflect the complexity of a task or the uncertainty involved in completing it. Agile Estimation, on the other hand, relies on relative sizing techniques such as story points, which provide a more general estimate and allow for greater flexibility.

3. Collaboration: Traditional estimation methods are often done by a single individual or a small group of experts who make all the estimations for a project. In Agile Estimation, team members collaborate to determine estimates together. This allows for diverse perspectives and knowledge to be taken into account, resulting in more accurate and realistic estimates.

4. Flexibility: Traditional estimation methods assume that all requirements are known at the beginning of a project and do not allow for changes or adjustments along the way. Agile Estimation embraces change and allows for continuous modifications to estimates based on new information and priorities.

5. Focus on value: Agile Estimation prioritizes delivering value to customers over creating detailed plans and documentation. Estimates are used as guidance, but they are not set in stone, allowing teams to focus on delivering high-quality products that meet customer needs rather than meeting arbitrary deadlines set by initial estimates.

In summary, Agile Estimation offers more flexibility, collaboration, focus on value delivery, and adaptability compared to traditional estimation methods. It also recognizes that software development is an iterative process where requirements can change over time, making continuous evaluation and adjustment of estimates crucial for project success.

3. What are story points and how are they used in Agile Estimation?

Story points are a unit of measurement used in Agile estimation to estimate the relative effort or complexity of a user story, feature, or requirement. They are typically represented as numbers (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 5, 8) and reflect the team’s collective understanding of how difficult it will be to implement a particular item.

In Agile methodology, story points are used for high-level estimation during release planning and sprint planning. The team assigns story points to each user story based on its complexity, technical dependencies, and potential risks. This allows the team to prioritize and plan their work effectively while also providing stakeholders with an understanding of how much work can be done in a given timeframe.

Story points are also useful in tracking progress and improving accuracy in estimating future sprints. As the team completes more sprints, they can compare the number of story points they were able to complete against their initial estimates and adjust accordingly for future sprints.

It’s important to note that story points represent effort or complexity rather than time. This allows for a more flexible approach to estimation as it is often difficult to accurately predict how long a task will take due to unforeseen challenges or changes in priorities. Instead, story points focus on the size and difficulty of an item relative to other items.

Overall, using story points in Agile estimation helps teams make more informed decisions about their workload and deliver value efficiently within each sprint.

4. Can you explain the concept of Planning Poker in Agile Estimation?


Planning Poker is a collaborative and democratic game used in Agile project management for estimating the amount of effort or complexity involved in completing a particular task or user story. It is based on the Wideband Delphi method, where instead of relying on experts or managers to provide estimates, the entire team is involved in the estimation process.

Here’s how it works:
1. The Product Owner presents a user story (a feature or requirement) to the team.
2. Each team member anonymously chooses a playing card with an estimate of how long they think it will take to complete that user story.
3. All cards are revealed simultaneously. If there is a wide range of estimations, the team members discuss their reasoning and re-estimate.
4. This process continues until a consensus is reached among all team members.
5. The final estimate is recorded as the agreed-upon estimate for that user story.

The concept behind Planning Poker is to involve everyone in the estimation process, promoting transparency and collaboration within the team. By using cards with numerical values, it also avoids anchoring bias and promotes independent thinking among team members.

Overall, Planning Poker helps teams to make more accurate estimations by leveraging the collective knowledge and experience of all its members rather than relying solely on individual opinions or assumptions. It also allows for open communication and promotes a shared understanding of each task’s complexity and effort required to complete it successfully.

5. What factors are considered when assigning story points to a user story or task?


1. Complexity and effort required: The main factor in assigning story points is the amount of work and complexity involved in completing the task. This can include factors such as technical difficulty, number of steps involved, and level of expertise required.

2. Uncertainty and risk: Another important consideration is the level of uncertainty and risk associated with the task. If a task has a high level of unknowns or potential roadblocks, it may require more story points to account for the extra effort and time needed to address these uncertainties.

3. Dependencies: Tasks that are dependent on other tasks or external factors may also require higher story points, as they may be more challenging to complete if those dependencies are delayed or disrupted.

4. Experience and skill of team members: The experience and skill level of team members working on the task can influence how many story points are assigned. A more experienced team member may be able to complete a task more efficiently, resulting in fewer story points assigned.

5. Effort vs Value trade-off: The value or impact of the user story can also play a role in determining its story points. If a user story has a significant impact on the overall project or product, it may warrant more story points even if it requires less effort.

6. Consistency with previous estimates: Teams often use their past performance and estimates as a reference point when assigning new story points. This helps maintain consistency in estimation and allows for easier comparison between tasks.

7. Team capacity: Finally, the capacity and resources available within the team at the time of estimation can also affect how many story points are assigned to a particular task. If the team is under high workload or has limited resources, they may assign higher story points to reflect this constraint.

6. How do team members come to a consensus during Planning Poker sessions?

During Planning Poker sessions, team members come to a consensus by discussing and comparing their individual estimates for each task or user story. They may also consider factors such as complexity, effort required, and resources available. Once all members have presented their estimates, they discuss any differences and try to reach a consensus by explaining their reasoning and addressing any concerns or questions from other team members. The group may continue to go through multiple rounds of discussion and estimation until a consensus is reached. Alternatively, the group can use techniques such as averaging or majority vote to determine a final estimate if they are unable to come to a consensus through discussion. It is important for the team members to listen and respect each other’s opinions during these discussions in order to reach a collaborative decision.

7. Is it necessary for all team members to have the same understanding of story points in order to estimate effectively?


No, it is not necessary for all team members to have the same understanding of story points in order to estimate effectively. However, it can be beneficial for team members to have a similar understanding in order to have more accurate and consistent estimates. Team members can reach a common understanding through discussion and clarification during estimation meetings. It is also important for team members to continuously align their understanding and usage of story points throughout the project in order to maintain consistency. Ultimately, what is most important is that the entire team understands and agrees on the relative effort and complexity of each story, regardless of their individual understanding of story points.

8. How does Agile Estimation help with project planning and prioritization?


Agile estimation helps with project planning and prioritization by allowing the team to determine which tasks or features should be given higher priority based on their estimated effort and value. It also helps in determining a realistic timeline for completing these tasks, as the estimates are based on the team’s velocity and past performance.

This allows for better allocation of resources and focus on delivering the most valuable features first, while still maintaining a consistent pace of delivery. Additionally, it helps identify any potential roadblocks or obstacles early on in the planning process, giving the team time to address them before they become major issues.

Agile estimation also promotes collaboration and communication within the team, as different perspectives and expertise are considered during the estimation process. This ensures that everyone is aligned and on the same page regarding project priorities and timelines.

Overall, Agile estimation allows for a more efficient and effective project planning process by providing visibility into what needs to be done, how long it will take, and what is most important to focus on. It enables teams to make informed decisions about project priorities and plan accordingly for successful delivery.

9. Are there any disadvantages to using story points for estimation in Agile projects?


Yes, there are a few potential disadvantages to using story points for estimation in Agile projects. These include:

1. Non-standard measurement: Story points are not a standard unit of measurement and may vary among teams or organizations. This can make it difficult to compare estimates across different projects.

2. Can be time-consuming: Estimating in story points requires discussion and consensus among team members, which can be a time-consuming process. This can slow down the planning process and delay project start times.

3. Lack of precision: Story points are meant to represent the relative effort of a task rather than an exact measure of time or cost. This lack of precision can make it difficult to plan and track progress accurately.

4. Experience-dependent: The accuracy of story point estimates relies heavily on the experience and knowledge of the team members making the estimations. If team members have varying levels of experience, this can lead to inconsistent estimations and potentially inaccurate project plans.

5. Can create pressure to increase velocity: In some cases, using story points for estimation can create undue pressure on teams to increase their velocity (the number of story points completed in a given sprint). This focus on speed over quality may result in decreased productivity and negatively impact the overall success of the project.

6. Time-boxed estimations are still needed: While story points provide a helpful guide for planning sprints, they do not replace the need for time-boxed estimates when working with external stakeholders or setting deadlines.

7. May not work well for large tasks: Story points are typically used for smaller, more bite-sized tasks that can be completed within one sprint. For larger tasks or projects, other estimation methods may be more effective.

Overall, while many teams find success with using story points for estimation in Agile projects, it is important to consider these potential drawbacks and adapt your approach as needed for your specific project context.

10. What is the role of the Product Owner in the Agile Estimation process?


The Product Owner is responsible for prioritizing and defining the product backlog. This includes breaking down larger user stories into smaller ones and ensuring that the team has a clear understanding of what needs to be delivered. They also work closely with the development team to ensure that estimates are based on customer value and align with the overall product vision.

The Product Owner plays a critical role in monitoring and updating the product backlog, as well as reprioritizing items based on changing business needs. They also communicate these changes to the development team so that estimates can be adjusted accordingly.

In addition, the Product Owner is responsible for communicating with stakeholders and managing their expectations regarding delivery timelines. They provide input on the feasibility of certain features or deadlines based on the team’s estimations.

Overall, the Product Owner acts as a bridge between stakeholders, customers, and the development team when it comes to understanding and refining requirements and ensuring timely delivery of valuable features.

11. Can we use Planning Poker for larger projects with multiple teams working together?

Yes, Planning Poker can be used for larger projects with multiple teams working together. However, in such cases, it may be more efficient to break down the project into smaller units and hold separate Planning Poker sessions for each unit. This will help to ensure that all teams have a clear understanding of their specific tasks and deadlines, and can prioritize their work accordingly.

Additionally, for larger projects with multiple teams, it may also be helpful to have a Scrum Master or Agile coach facilitate the Planning Poker sessions and ensure effective communication and collaboration between the teams. The use of collaboration tools such as digital whiteboards or online planning poker apps can also make the process more efficient for virtual or distributed teams.

12. How can we track the accuracy of estimations made during Planning Poker sessions?


The accuracy of estimations made during Planning Poker sessions can be tracked by comparing the estimated hours or story points to the actual time taken for completing the task. This can be done by regularly reviewing and updating the estimates as tasks are completed, and analyzing any discrepancies between the estimated and actual time taken. Another way to track accuracy is by gathering feedback from team members about their estimation process and making adjustments accordingly. Additionally, retrospective meetings can also help identify areas for improvement in the estimation process, leading to more accurate estimations in future Planning Poker sessions.

13. Are there any best practices for facilitating effective Planning Poker sessions?


1. Set clear objectives: Before starting the session, make sure all team members have a clear understanding of the goal and the scope of the work to be estimated using Planning Poker.

2. Use standard deck of cards: Use a standard deck of cards with numbers from 0-13 or Fibonacci numbers (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13) to make it easier for team members to understand and estimate.

3. Involve all team members: Ensure that every team member gets an opportunity to participate in the estimation process. This helps to get a more accurate estimate as multiple perspectives are considered.

4. Establish ground rules: Set some ground rules before starting the session such as only one person talking at a time, no discussions during individual estimates, etc.

5. Explain each task clearly: Make sure that everyone has a common understanding of all the tasks that need to be estimated before starting the estimation process.

6. Encourage active participation: Facilitate healthy discussions and encourage team members to share their reasoning behind their estimates.

7. Discuss outlier estimates: If there is a significant difference in estimates among team members for a particular task, discuss them and try to understand the reasoning behind them.

8. Time-box each round: Set a time limit for each round of estimation to ensure that enough time is given for discussion but also preventing it from going on too long.

9. Reach consensus: Continue with rounds of estimation until there is a consensus among the team members on an estimate for each task.

10. Record all estimates: Document all estimates given by individuals in each round so they can be referred back to if needed later on.

11. Use technology tools: Consider using online planning poker tools or apps to facilitate remote collaboration and speed up the process.

12. Take breaks: It’s important to take breaks during long sessions or when fatigue sets in to ensure that participants stay focused and engaged.

13. Reflect and improve: After the session, reflect on what went well and what could be improved for future sessions. This will help to continuously improve the effectiveness of your Planning Poker sessions.

14. In what ways can historical data be used to improve future estimations in Agile projects?


1. Identify Patterns and Trends: By analyzing historical data, one can identify patterns and trends in the team’s velocity, project duration, and other metrics. Understanding these patterns can help in making more accurate estimations for future projects.

2. Analyze Factors Affecting Estimations: Historical data can also provide information on factors that affect estimations such as team size, skills, complexity of tasks, and external dependencies. By considering these factors while making estimations, the accuracy of future estimates can be improved.

3. Estimate Backlog Items Better: Historical data can help in breaking down backlog items more accurately by identifying similar features or tasks from previous sprint cycles. This way, the team can avoid overestimation or underestimation of tasks.

4. Improve Team Productivity: By analyzing historical data related to team performance and productivity, agile teams can identify bottlenecks and areas for improvement. This helps in planning better for future projects and increasing team productivity.

5. Assess Risk Factors: Historical data can help identify project risks and their impact on past projects. This information is useful in estimating the potential impact of risks on current projects to make contingency plans accordingly.

6. Track Progress: Agile projects rely heavily on tracking progress through metrics like burn-down charts or cumulative flow diagrams. Historical data provides a benchmark to compare current progress against previous projects and make necessary adjustments for more accurate estimations.

7. Refine Estimating Techniques: By analyzing past estimation techniques and comparing them to actual results, agile teams can refine their estimating techniques for better accuracy in future projects.

8. Understand Project Dynamics: Historical data can provide insights into how the project dynamics have changed over time, such as changing requirements or scope creep. This information helps in making better-informed decisions when estimating future projects.

9. Benchmarking with Industry Standards: Historical data from previous projects in the same industry or domain can serve as a benchmark for new projects’ estimations. This can provide a more realistic baseline for estimations.

10. Forecast Project Cost and Schedule: By analyzing historical data on project cost and schedule, agile teams can forecast potential cost and schedule variances for future projects. This helps in setting realistic targets and avoiding budget overruns.

11. Reuse Estimations: Historical data on estimated versus actual effort spent on tasks or features helps in creating a library of reusable estimations for similar tasks or features in future projects.

12. Improve Sprint Planning: Agile teams can use historical data to plan sprints more accurately by considering past team velocity, average cycle time, and other metrics. This helps in setting achievable goals for each sprint.

13. Enhance Estimation Accuracy with Regular Updates: As agile projects progress, new data is generated continuously, which can be used to update the initial estimations regularly to improve accuracy.

14. Learn from Past Mistakes: Historical data allows agile teams to analyze past mistakes or failures and learn from them to avoid repeating them in future projects. This improves the overall estimation process and leads to better outcomes for future projects.

15. Can we use other methods besides Planning Poker for estimating tasks in Agile projects?

Yes, there are various other methods that can be used for estimating tasks in Agile projects:

1. Affinity Estimating:
Similar to Planning Poker, this method involves grouping user stories into categories based on their complexity or effort required. The team then assigns a relative effort or story point value to each category.

2. T-Shirt Sizing:
This method uses t-shirt sizes (small, medium, large) to estimate the effort required for a task. Each team member individually assigns a size to the task and then the team discusses and comes to a consensus on an agreed size.

3. Dot Voting:
In this method, each team member is given a certain number of dots or votes which they can distribute among different tasks based on their perceived effort. The tasks with the most number of votes are seen as the most complex and require more effort.

4. Bucket System:
This method is similar to Affinity Estimating but instead of using categories, user stories are placed in buckets based on complexity or value. The team then goes through each bucket and assigns story points.

5. Three-Point Estimation:
This method uses three estimates – best case, worst case, and most likely case – to determine the range of effort needed for a task. These estimates are then averaged to come up with a single estimate.

Ultimately, the best estimation method will vary based on the needs and preferences of your team, so it’s important to experiment and find what works best for you.

16. How does team size affect the accuracy of estimations using story points?


The ideal team size for estimating using story points is generally 5-9 members. This allows for enough diversity in opinions and perspectives while still maintaining efficient communication and collaboration. Larger team sizes may result in longer discussions and debates, leading to inflated or inaccurate estimates. On the other hand, smaller team sizes may lack the necessary diversity of thought and may not accurately capture all aspects of the user story.

If the team size continually changes during estimation meetings, it may also affect accuracy as new members may have different understanding or experience levels with the project. It is important for teams to establish a consistent and stable group for estimation purposes.

Overall, having a team size that is too large or too small can lead to inaccurate estimations using story points. Finding a balance in team size can help improve accuracy by allowing for effective communication and diverse perspectives while minimizing potential biases.

17. Are there any specific tools or software that can assist with Agile Estimation?


Yes, there are several tools and software that can assist with Agile estimation, such as:

1. Planning Poker: This is a card-based technique where each team member estimates the effort required for a feature or story by selecting cards with numbers representing points.

2. T-Shirt Sizing: This method uses clothing sizes (small, medium, large) to estimate the relative size of tasks compared to each other.

3. Dot Voting: In this method, team members vote on the level of effort for each task by placing dots next to them.

4. Affinity Mapping: This technique involves grouping related tasks together to help identify patterns and make better estimations.

5. Fibonacci Sequence: The Fibonacci sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13…) is used in agile estimation to represent increasing levels of complexity and effort required for a task.

6. Planning Poker Online Tools: There are several online tools available that allow teams to conduct planning poker remotely and track estimations digitally.

7. Agile Estimating and Planning Cards: These physical cards contain different number sequences and can be used as a visual tool during estimation sessions.

8. Agile Estimation Software: There are various software tools specifically designed for Agile estimation that can automate the estimation process and provide real-time updates on progress.

9. Monte Carlo Simulation: This method simulates different scenarios based on historical data and helps identify potential risks or discrepancies in estimations.

10. Burn-Up or Burn-Down Charts: These charts visually display the progress made towards completing a project based on estimated versus actual completion dates, providing valuable insights into the accuracy of initial estimates.

18. How often should we re-estimate user stories or tasks during an agile project?


In Agile, the practice of re-estimation is referred to as “refining” or “grooming” user stories or tasks. The frequency of refinement or grooming sessions may vary depending on the team’s specific needs and project timeline, but in general, it should be done regularly throughout the project. This could mean scheduling a refinement session for every sprint, every two weeks, or once a month. It’s important to continuously refine and groom user stories and tasks to ensure they are up-to-date and accurately reflect the current priorities and requirements of the project. If changes or new information arise during the project, it’s also important to have an ad-hoc refinement session as needed to adjust any affected user stories or tasks.

19.Create examples of stories that would have higher and lower complexity, and explain how they would be estimated differently.


Example of a story with higher complexity:
Title: “The Mystical Quest for the Enchanted Amulet”
Estimated Points: 13

Description: In a distant kingdom, a group of brave adventurers set out on a quest to retrieve an ancient and powerful artifact known as the Enchanted Amulet. Along the way, they encounter obstacles such as treacherous mountain passes, enchanted creatures guarding the amulet, and rival groups also seeking to claim it for their own gain. The journey is filled with intense battles, unexpected challenges, and moral dilemmas that test the loyalty and courage of our heroes.

This story has a higher complexity because it involves multiple characters and plot points that need to be introduced and developed. There are also various elements of fantasy and adventure that require more details and world-building. It may also involve subplots or twists that add layers to the overall narrative.

Example of a story with lower complexity:
Title: “A Day at the Beach”
Estimated Points: 5

Description: A family spends a lovely day at the beach, swimming in the ocean, building sandcastles, and having a picnic. They enjoy each other’s company while soaking up the sun and playing games in the sand. As evening approaches, they pack up their things and head back home, feeling rejuvenated by their fun day by the sea.

This story has lower complexity because it only involves one main setting (the beach) and focuses on one family’s simple activities throughout the day. There is minimal conflict or character development needed, leading to less detailed storytelling. This type of story is shorter in length and can be conveyed in fewer words compared to one with higher complexity.

20.What are some common challenges faced during Agile Estimation and how can they be overcome?


Some common challenges faced during Agile Estimation include:

1. Unclear or changing requirements: It can be difficult to estimate accurately when the requirements are not well-defined or keep changing. This can lead to scope creep and result in inaccurate estimates.

Solution: To overcome this challenge, it is important to have a collaborative approach between the development team and the product owner. The team should continuously communicate with the product owner to clarify any unclear requirements and be involved in the decision-making process for any changes to the requirements.

2. Lack of historical data: In agile projects, there may not be enough historical data available for accurate estimation as each project is unique.

Solution: One way to overcome this challenge is to break down the project into smaller chunks and use past experience and knowledge of similar projects to estimate each chunk separately. Another approach is to use analogous estimation, where you compare the current project with previous similar projects and make an estimate based on that.

3. Over-optimism or over-caution: Developers may tend to be over-optimistic or over-cautious in their estimates, leading to unrealistic deadlines or padding estimates with extra time.

Solution: To avoid this challenge, it is important for teams to have open and transparent communication about their estimations. The team must also regularly review their estimates against actuals and adjust future estimations accordingly.

4. Distributed teams: Estimating in distributed teams can be challenging as communication may not always be effective, which can lead to misunderstandings and incorrect estimations.

Solution: To address this challenge, it is important for distributed teams to have clear guidelines for communication protocols and use tools such as video conferencing and online collaboration tools effectively. Regular face-to-face meetings can also help improve communication between team members.

5. Time constraints: In agile projects, there is a strong emphasis on delivering working software quickly, which can put pressure on developers when making estimates.

Solution: Teams should prioritize their backlog and focus on delivering the most valuable features first. This will help in managing expectations and avoiding unrealistic deadlines.

6. Lack of technical expertise: Some team members may not have enough technical expertise to accurately estimate certain tasks, leading to under or overestimation.

Solution: Cross-training within the team can help address this challenge. If there are specific tasks that require special expertise, consider involving an external consultant or seek guidance from experts in the field.

7. Fear of failure: Some team members may hesitate to provide accurate estimates due to fear of failure or being held accountable for not meeting deadlines.

Solution: Encourage a culture of open communication and continuous improvement within the team. Make it safe for team members to share their concerns and adjust estimates if needed without any negative repercussions.

In summary, Agile Estimation is an essential aspect of agile project management, and teams must continuously strive to improve their estimation process by addressing these common challenges. Regularly reviewing estimations against actuals and adapting as needed will ultimately lead to more accurate estimates and successful project delivery.

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